Monthly Insights for Executives in Australia’s Clean Energy Sector

November 2025 Edition

Opening Snapshot

November was a systems month: the energy transition kept moving, but the big story was how Australia is choosing to manage risk and timing. AEMO went public with a push to lengthen coal-closure notice to 5 years and to shorten procurement timelines for essential system services, effectively admitting that coal exits are outrunning new generation and security delivery. The government leaned harder into underwriting via the Capacity Investment Scheme (CIS), with wind revived through large contract rounds and a new storage-heavy Tender 8 that for the first time opens the door to aggregated small batteries. On the hardware front, system-strength and inertia was highlighted again with Australia’s biggest synchronous condenser spinning up in Victoria, while the Waratah Super Battery delay showed how a single transformer can derail a summer reliability plan. Transmission and interconnectors remain central to the energy transition, with Basslink’s conversion to a regulated asset and Marinus Link moving through approvals/funding milestones, but the month’s subtext remains that transmission cost blowouts and social-licence friction are forcing a rethink toward non-poles & wires options.

Net-net: policy underwriting is filling the investment gap, but delivery bottlenecks and security needs are now the pace‑setters.

Highlights

1. AEMO forces the timing debate into the open.
   • Rule‑change request to extend coal‑exit notice by 18 months (to ~5 years total) and enable faster, tech‑neutral procurement of system strength/inertia/dispatchable resources. (Renew Economy)
   • Why it’s a win: finally aligns law with physical build times; reduces surprise‑exit risk.
2. CIS continues scaling underwriting, including wind revival.
   • Government underwriting rounds supported large new capacity including major wind allocations; narrative shift from “wind slump” toward “wind comeback under CIS.” (The Australian)
3. CIS Tender 8 launches as a storage‑first round (4GW/16GWh), with aggregation eligible.
   • First tender to explicitly welcome aggregated small‑battery projects. (Energy Storage)
   • Why it matters: signals a real market lane for VPP‑scale dispatchable capacity.
4. System strength build arrives in steel, not PowerPoint.
   • Ararat synchronous condenser (largest in Australia) begins testing; expected to unlock ~600 MW of renewables by stabilising voltage/frequency. (The Guardian)
5. Interconnector regulation trend strengthens.
   • Basslink approved to move into regulated asset base from July 2026. (Renew Economy)
   • Pattern: interconnectors increasingly treated as essential regulated infrastructure.

Lowlights

1. Delivery bottlenecks are real and sometimes unexpected.
   • Waratah Super Battery slips to 2026 due to transformer failure; partial operation only. (The Guardian)
   • Takeaway: the constraint isn’t always capital; it’s equipment, commissioning, and grid access.
2. Transmission cost blowouts + social licence biting hard.
   • AEMO/industry commentary flags likely rethink of transmission build sequencing and heavier use of non‑wires alternatives. (Renew Economy)
   • Risk: ISP pathways become slower/more contested just as coal exits speed up.
3. Coal exit uncertainty is still destabilising expectations.
   • Futures and market commentary show traders not fully pricing early exits (esp. Eraring/Yallourn), reinforcing AEMO’s move. (Renew Economy)
4. Political fault‑lines widened.
   • Nationals and Liberals formally scrapped net‑zero commitment (but weirdly not NSW & Vic State Liberals), sharpening 2026 election risk to policy continuity. (The Guardian)

Announcements, project & capital signals

• Modules: 1 GW AIKO supply agreement for Australian distributors; near‑term procurement pressure eases for C&I/utility buyers hunting high‑efficiency back‑contact panels. (PV Magazine Australia)
• Tech + pilots: Ampt DC‑coupled solar‑plus‑storage chosen to power a green hydrogen + ammonia facility linked to low‑carbon cotton. Good read-through for DC-bus architectures in ag/industrial off-takers. (pv magazine International)
• System‑wide finance backdrop: CEFC posted a record A$3.5 b in 24/25 (grid + renewables), underwriting the next wave of storage and transmission. Tender outcomes over summer will determine where that gunpowder lands. (Reuters)
• CEC/QRIC decommissioning framework: clarifies end-of-life risk, smoother approvals, better farmer optics. (PV Magazine Australia)
• V2G hardware lines: enables fleet pilots with real grid services; watch DNSP tariff trials. (FNArena.com)
• Residential ESS launches: more VPP-ready options to plug into policy‑backed home battery schemes. (FNArena.com)

Why it matters: Cheaper modules plus smarter DC architectures shorten paybacks; green bank firepower plus CIS tenders keep the pipeline liquid, but grid connection queues and land access still dominate critical path.

Data points

• 2% fall in Australia’s greenhouse gas emissions over the last financial year (The Guardian)
• 88 TWh of clean energy generated in October 2025 vs 9.82 TWh from fossil fuels, the first month clean power has exceeded fossil generation (Reuters)
• 20 projects selected from CIS Tender 4 delivering 6.6 GW of renewables and 3.5 GW/11.4 GWh of storage (DCCEEW)
• 150-tonne synchronous condenser at Ararat, Victoria, has begun testing and is expected to unlock up to 600 MW of additional renewable generation (The Guardian)

Watchlist for December

• Passing of the Environment Protection Reform Bill 2025 and the potential variance in commencement for each of the provisions.
• CIS Tender 4 projects moving from award to FID/EPC will shape 2026–28 build cadence and associated project & grid-engineering demand (DCCEEW)
• Li-S Energy’s FEED, feasibility and partnership activity on the proposed 1 GWh Geelong battery plant as a bellwether for local storage manufacturing jobs (Australian Renewable Energy Agency)
• Commissioning timeline and follow-on grid-strengthening announcements around Ararat and other syncons, indicating demand for system-security and grid-integration expertise (The Guardian)
• Policy response to the 2.2% emissions fall and >40% renewables share, including any adjustments to targets or schemes to close the 2030/2035 gap. (The Guardian / DCCEEW) (The Guardian)

Prepared by Freshwater Group. Helping companies secure leadership and critical talent for the energy transition.

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